Published and Forthcoming Papers
Cross-Country Evidence on Labor Market Institutions and Young Adult Employment through the Financial Crisis. Southern Economic Journal. Forthcoming.
The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories of Low-Skilled Workers (with Michael J. Wither). Journal of Public Economics, 170(February): 53-67. 2019. Previously distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 20724. Prior version with theoretical framework. NBER working paper 21830 (Contains CPS analysis that had once been integrated into a revision, but was removed from published version).
Implications of Medicaid Financing Reform for State Government Budgets (with Benedic Ippolito). Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 32. 2018.
The Short-Run Employment Effects Of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence from the American Community Survey(with Michael R. Strain). Contemporary Economic Policy, 36(4): 711-722. 2018.
Do Health Insurers Innovate? Evidence from the Anatomy of Physician Payments (with Joshua Gottlieb and Timea Molnar). Journal of Health Economics, 55C: 153-167. 2017.
In the Shadow of a Giant: Medicare's Influence on Private Payment Systems (with Joshua Gottlieb). Journal of Political Economy, 125(1): 1 - 39. 2017. Online Appendix Material. Previously distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19503.
Risks to the Returns to Medical Innovation: The Case of Myriad Genetics. (with Stan Veuger). Contemporary Economic Policy, 35(2): 345-357. 2017. Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 21469.
Medicare Payment Cuts Continue to Restrain Inflation (with Joshua Gottlieb and Adam Shapiro ). FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016-15, May 2016.
Redistribution through Minimum Wage Regulation: An Analysis of Program Linkages and Budgetary Spillovers . Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 30. 2016.
Regulatory Redistribution in the Market for Health Insurance. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 7(2): 109-34. 2015. Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19904.
Who Pays for Public Employee Health Costs? (with David M. Cutler). Journal of Health Economics, 38C: 65-76. 2014.
Note: Link is to National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19574.How Much Do Medicare Cuts Reduce Inflation? (with Joshua Gottlieb and Adam Shapiro ). FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014-28, September 2014.
Do Physicians' Financial Incentives Affect Treatment Patterns and Patient Health? (with Joshua Gottlieb). American Economic Review, 104(4): 1320-1349. 2014.
An Analysis of Economic Warfare. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 103(3): 523-527. 2013.
The Rise of the States: U.S. Fiscal Decentralization in the Postwar Period (with Katherine Baicker and Monica Singhal).Journal of Public Economics, 96(11-12): 1079-1091. 2012.
Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending (with Stephen Miran). American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2): 46-68. 2012.
Opium in Afghanistan: Prospects for the Success of Source Country Drug Control Policies. The Journal of Law and Economics, 51(3): 407-432. 2008.
Capping the Mortgage Interest Deduction (with John Anderson and Andrew Hanson). National Tax Journal, 60(4): 769-785. 2007.
Working Papers
Wartime Procurement and the Direction of Prosthetic Device Innovation. (with Parker Rogers).
Understanding "Wage Theft": Evasion and Avoidance Responses to Minimum Wage Increases. (with Michael R. Strain) IZA Working Paper 12167. 2019.
The Minimum Wage, Fringe Benefits, and Worker Welfare. (with Lisa B. Kahn and Jonathan Meer).National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 24635. Response to Cengiz.
Dropouts Need Not Apply: The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading (with Lisa B. Kahn and Jonathan Meer).
Uncompensated Care and the Collapse of Hospital Payment Regulation: An Application of the Tinbergen Rule. (with Benedic Ippolito). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 23758.
Estimating the Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Early Evidence, an Interpretative Framework, and a Pre-Commitment to Future Analysis. (with Michael R. Strain) National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 23084.
The Effect of U.S. Health Insurance Expansions on Medical Innovation. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19761.
The Low-Skilled Labor Market from 2002 to 2014: Measurement and Mechanisms.
Do Medicare Payments Influence Physicians' On-the-Job Investments?. (with Joshua Gottlieb and Jeffrey Hicks).
The Spillover Effects of Top Income Inequality. (with Joshua Gottlieb, David Hemous, and Morten Olsen)
Is Tinkering with Safety Net Programs Harmful to Beneficiaries? Evidence from the Medicaid Notch and the Minimum Wage (with Michael J. Wither).
Replication Materials for Supplemental Minimum Wage Analyses
Additional Evidence and Replication Code for Analyzing the Effects of Minimum Wage Increases Enacted During the Great Recession. Replication Archive (with Michael J. Wither).
Pitfalls in the Development of Falsification Tests: An Illustration from the Recent Minimum Wage Literature. Replication Archive.
The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: A Response to Zipperer and Recapitulation of the Evidence. Replication Archive.
Supplements
Just the Facts: Demographic and Cross-Country Dimensions of the Employment Slump (with Michael J. Wither). Supplements other work on the minimum wage and the low-skilled labor market.
Evaluating Economic Warfare: Lessons from Efforts to Suppress the Afghan Opium Trade. Supplements other work on source-country drug control policy.
State Fiscal Adjustment During Times of Stress: Possible Causes of the Severity and Composition of Budget Cuts. Supplements other work on state and local government finances.
Instructional and Policy Oriented Writing
Making Sense of the Minimum Wage: A Roadmap for Navigating Recent Research. CATO Institute. Policy Analysis NO. 867 May 14. 2019. PDF Available Here.
New Working Paper Set: Interpreting Recent Research on the Effects of Minimum Wage Increases Enacted During the Great Recession. Medium. June 14, 2017.
Medicaid Reform: The Elephant in the Room (Joint with Benedic Ippolito) Real Clear Health. January 4, 2017.
The Minimum Wage and the Market for Low-Skilled Labor: Why a Decade Can Make a Difference (SIEPR Policy Brief, February 2016).
Repeal of the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate: Direct and Indirect Consequences. (Joint with Stan Veuger) AMA Journal of Ethics. Volume 17, Number 11: 1053-1058. November 2015.
Expanding Medicaid may also help to improve the coverage of Obamacare's health insurance exchanges (LSE's USAPP blog, June 2, 2015).
The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories of Low-Skilled Workers (Joint with Michael Wither. Cato Institute, Research Briefs in Economic Policy No. 22. March 18, 2015).
The minimum-wage and the US employment slump (Joint with Michael Wither. Voxeu, January 14, 2015).
Why State Decisions About Expanding Medicaid Matter For The Success Of Their Insurance Marketplaces (Scholars Strategy Network, Key Findings Brief, September 2014).
Who Pays for Public Employee Health Costs? (Joint with David Cutler. Cato Institute, Research Briefs in Economic Policy No. 6. July 23, 2014.)
How Medicare Shapes the U.S. Health Sector (Economics in Action, Spring 2014).
Health Reform and the Future of Medical Innovation (Scholars Strategy Network, Key Findings Brief, January 2014).
Implications of Physician Ethics, Billing Norms, and Service Cost Structures for Medicare's Fee Schedule (Written for Economics 140: The Economics of Health Care Producers).
Can Financing Reforms Reduce Costs While Improving Health Care Quality? (SIEPR Policy Brief, January 2012).